Probably true... generally speaking.Many people here will have a huge surprise when they'll fly for real.
But, violent lifts of this strength are not impossible in RL mountainous areas. 15 or +16 m/s thermals... I don't know, only had that in wave once.
Weather model improvement? The developers are aware of that.
About path selection: you don't have to follow the others.
I never do, and always draw my own plan.
That's the trick, in order to win you have to do something different than the others.
You can either fly in front and have the others follow you (best option) or select a different path.
Problem is, that many of the others always seem to pick the path I would have liked to follow.
That's probably why I never win.